Regular Article

Dynamic graph structure and spatio-temporal representations in wind power forecasting

¹ State Grid Jibei Zhangjiakou Wind, PV, Storage and Transmission Renewable Energy Co., Ltd., Zhangjiakou 075000, China
² Hebei University of Architecture, Information Engineering College, Zhangjiakou 075000, Hebei, China

^* Corresponding author: fjl1976@hebiace.edu.cn

Received: 5 July 2024
Accepted: 13 November 2024

Abstract

Wind Power Forecasting (WPF) has gained considerable focus as a crucial aspect of the successful integration and operation of wind power. However, due to the stochastic and unstable nature of wind, it poses a real challenge to effectively analyze the correlations among multiple time series data for accurate prediction. In our study, an end-to-end framework called Dynamic Graph structure and Spatio-Temporal representation learning (DSTG) framework is proposed to achieve stable power forecasting by constructing graph data to capture the critical features in the data. Specifically, a Graph Structure Learning (GSL) module is introduced to dynamically construct task-related correlation matrices via backpropagation to mitigate the inherent inconsistency and randomness of wind power data. Additionally, a dual-scale temporal graph learning (DTG) module is further proposed to explore the implicit spatio-temporal features at a fine-grained level using different skip connections from the constructed graph data. Finally, comprehensive experiments are performed on the collected Xuji Group Wind Power (XGWP) dataset, and the results show that DSTG outperforms the state-of-the-art spatio-temporal methods by 10.12% on the average of root mean square error and mean absolute error, demonstrating the effectiveness of DSTG. In conclusion, our model provides a promising approach.